Lectures 4-6

The Constraints and Incentives of Anarchy

Jervis and the Security Dilemma

1. Starting point for realism: structure
1. anarchy vs hierarchy
2. Anarchy leads to:
1. War is always possible
1. Self-help (aka, sort of, functional similarity)
1. Concerns for Relative Gains
1. security dilemma
2. Collective action problems
1. tragedy of the commons

What is the security dilemma? 

The dilemma: "An increase in one state's security decreases the security of others."

Security dilemma is: ↑ My security = ↓ Your security

Security dilemma → Arms Races, Security Spirals

↑ Offense Dominance → ↑ Arms Races, Security Spirals (and vice versa with defense dominance)

↑ Offense Dominance → ↑ Instability (and vice versa with defense dominance)

Often only means weapons, but I think it also describes a general level of fear and threat assessment

Manipulating the severity of the security dilemma:

• The Offense/Defense Balance
• Influences on the Balance

Jervis, Deterrence and Spiral:

Two strategies for dealing threats and enemies

1. When threatened do you deter or appease?

1. Deterrence
1. capability
2. resolve
3. communication
4. rationality
2. Costs of Deterrence = spirals
1. security dilemma
3. How to Choose?
   
3. How to Choose?
   

Deterrence Model:

⇑ Strength  → Back Down (Prevent War)

Spiral Model:

⇑ Strength  → Rear Up (Arms Races, Security Spirals)

⇑ ⇓ ↑ ↓

Continuum of non-balancing policies:

Bandwagon ↔ Appease ↔ Despiral

Continuum of balancing policies:

Pre-empt ↔ Misc. denial ↔ Build up/Ally w\others

Jervis, Hypotheses on Misperception

1. How does psychology influence decision-making?
1. Newtonian Psychology hypothesis
2. pre-Copernican Psychology
3. Bowling Shoe hypothesis
2. How do these relate to other theories?

Walt and Balance of Threat

1. Question: Where do friends and alliances come from?
2. Answer: Balancing against threats.
1. vs. bandwagoning
2. any other options/strategies?
3. Four components of (influences on) threat are:
1. aggregate power
2. geography
3. offensive power
4. intentions
4. Note competing explanations and structure of argument
5. Note policy implications

Ostrom

1. Three problems that hinder cooperation, all caused or exacerbated by anarchy:
1. Tragedy of the Commons
2. Prisoners’ Dilemma
3. Collective Action Problems
2. How can one fix these problems? (for future classes)
1. Hints: enforcement, communication, reciprocity, shadow of the future/concern for reputation.

Prisoner's Dilemma

C=Cooperate

D=Defect

Game highlights basic incentives to cheat given certain assumptions: bad guys that can not talk to each other. One shot iteration.     

Fisherperson’s Dilemma

C=Cooperate

D=Defect

Game highlights Common Goods/Tragedy of the Commons Problems (CPRs common pooled resources)

Also relevant: Stag Hunt

Review of Realism

• The consequences of anarchy

• Focus on power and the possibility of war

• Influence of the distribution of capabilities on state behavior

Questions for next section:

How much anarchy is there? How can it be mitigated?