Lecture 10

The Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

1. Proliferation beyond the “Superpowers”
   1. After the Soviet Union in 1949, the first successful British test of a pure fission based 10 kT bomb (Totem 1) took place on October 14, 1953 at Emu Field, Australia.
   2. The free fall bomb (Blue Danube) was the first nuclear weapon stockpiled by Britain, going into service in November 1953.
   3. In 1954, Winston Churchill decided that Britain should go ahead with H-bomb development.
2. Proliferation after the 1963 test ban
   In 1949 and 1952 France builds its first reactors which could be used  for Pu-239 breeding. Uranium ores were discovered in France in 1951.  The French nuclear weapons program began in earnest in 1956. After the humiliating defeat at Dien Bien Phu and the loss of French Indochina, and the lack of US support during the Suez crisis, France decided to develop its independent military and nuclear force structure (Force de Frappe). The first French nuclear test, code-named Gerboise Bleue (60-70KT),  was detonated on February 13 1960 at Reggane in Algeria. After Algeria gained independence in 1966, the French testing program moved to the Mururoa and Fangataufa Atolls in the South Pacific.
3. The China Program
   1. China began developing nuclear weapons in the late 1950s with Soviet assistance. Of the assistance provided, most significant to China's future nuclear capability were an experimental nuclear reactor, facilities for processing uranium, a cyclotron, and some equipment for a gaseous diffusions plant.  When Sino-Soviet relations cooled in the late 1950s and early 1960s, the Soviet Union withheld plans and data for an atomic bomb, abrogated the agreement on transferring defense technology, and began the withdrawal of Soviet advisers in 1960. Despite the termination of Soviet assistance, China committed itself to continue nuclear weapons development to break "the superpowers' monopoly on nuclear weapons," to ensure Chinese security against the Soviet and United States threats, and to increase Chinese prestige and power internationally.
   2. China made remarkable progress in the 1960s in developing nuclear weapons. In a thirty-two-month period, China successfully exploded its first atomic bomb (October 16, 1964) at Lop Nor (Takla Makan desert), launched its first nuclear missile (October 25, 1966), and detonated its first hydrogen bomb (June 14, 1967).
4. Soviet and Chinese test sites
   Lop Nor, as it was called, was located on the east edge of the Tarim Basin in China’s Zinjiang Province. A large land structure was created by water level changes within the former lake.  Concentric rings formed as water evaporated from the lake and left mineral deposits, including highly reflective salts, along the new shoreline. The former lake now resembles a giant ear.  Visible are a small plateau ~3000 ft above the terrain south of Lop Nor and extensive sand dunes and sand ridges to the southeast.

Conquest of Sinai 1-5 November 1956 during the Suez crisis.  Image courtesy of United States Federal Government. 
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The Suez Crisis

1. The Suez Crisis: was a military attack on Egypt by Britain, France, and Israel beginning on 29 October 1956.  The attack followed Egypt's decision of 26 July 1956 to nationalize the Suez Canal after the withdrawal of an offer by Britain and the United States to fund the building of the Aswan Dam.

2. The Suez crisis triggered the Israel nuclear weapons program. Already in 1953, Israeli Prime Minister Ben-Gurion had ordered the development of nuclear weapons.  Six weeks before the Suez Canal operation in 1956, Israel approached France for assistance in building a nuclear reactor Dimona.  The reactor was completed in 1964 and declared to be for peaceful purposes.  While the United States government did not encourage or approve of the Israeli nuclear program, it also did nothing to stop it. In early 1968, the CIA issued a report concluding that Israel had started production of nuclear weapons.

   South Africa’s quest for a nuclear deterrent began with research for peaceful nuclear explosives (PNEs) and reactor development in 1969. Pretoria initially would not confirm it was developing, or possessed, nuclear weapons, but it had large natural deposits of uranium, uranium enrichment facilities and the necessary technological infrastructure. These projects were undertaken with some cooperation from Israel. Initial tests in 1975 were stopped by USSR and US cooperation, but a flash over the Indian Ocean was detected by an US satellite in September 1979 and was suspected of being a nuclear test.

The “Mordechai Vanunu” Case

Most information (for a "secret" Israeli Program") was provided by Mordechai Vanunu who managed to take and publicize 60 photos.  He was later kidnapped by Mossad and brought to Israel for trial.

1. Convicted in a secret trial in 1988 to 18 years imprisonment.
2. Released in 2004, but frequently rearrested in 2004 and 2005.
3. Prevented from immigrating from Israel in the name of National Security.

India

Pakistan

North Korea

1. North Korea conducted an underground nuclear explosive test on October 16, 2006. The estimated yield of the test was less than one kiloton.
2. North Korea’s Nuclear Facilities
3. 1. There are reportedly as many as 22 nuclear facilities in 18 locations in North Korea. These include uranium mines, refinery plants, nuclear fuel plants, nuclear reactors, reprocessing facilities, and research facilities. North Korea has atomic energy research centers in Yongbyon and Sunchon and an atomic power plant under construction in Sinpo. Nuclear weapons development at various universities. Natural uranium has been processed near the cities of Sunchon and Pyongsan since the 1960's. The nuclear facilities in Yongbyon, North Korea, are at the heart of an international dispute over North Korea's nuclear weapons program.

Negotiations

1. Framework signed by the United States and North Korea on October 21, 1994 in Geneva agreed that:
   1. North Korea would freeze its existing nuclear program and agree to enhanced International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards
   2. Both sides would cooperate to replace the D.P.R.K.'s graphite-moderated reactors for related facilities with light-water (LWR) power plants.
   3. Both countries would move toward full normalization of political and economic relations.
   4. Both sides will work together for peace and security on a nuclear-free Korean peninsula.?And that both sides would work to strengthen the international nuclear non-proliferation regime.
2. Prior to the establishment of the Agreed Framework, intelligence sources believed that North Korea could have extracted plutonium from their reactors for use in nuclear weapons; perhaps enough for one or two nuclear weapons.
3. What does North Korea Want?
4. 1. To shatter the U.S. security architecture in Northeast Asia.
   2. To break the U.S. military alliance with South Korea.
   3. To pursue the reunification of the peninsula on Pyongyang's terms.