Violence - Part 2 (Finishing Off our Model)

Psychological Pre-Conditions

• Anomie
• Frustration Aggression
• Contagion
• Cognitive dissonance
• Relative deprivation

Biological

Economic Pre-Conditions

• The dominance-submission nexus within society

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Scope

Intensity

Social Conditions

• Justifications:
  • nominative
  • utilitatian
• Legitimacy
• Socialization
• Politicization
• Institutional support:
  • functional
  • institutional
• Political symbols
• Balance of coercion:
  • resource
  • ideology
  • release mechanisms

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Types of Political Violence

• Assassination
• Insurgency by groups
• General turmoil
• Civil war
• Repression by the state 

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Political Variables

• Government Policies:
  • short run vs. long run

• A strong response that is firm but fair tends to be most effective.
• Repressive response against one group or faction to “make an example” will work about 15% of the time, but lead to worse violence about 85% of the time.
• A solution?
  • Sketch out substance and style of new long term policies with legitimacy and you can deter most of the violence, especially if some short term rewards are available and dispensed.

•  Will succeed if they are mindful of the post-conflict phase that is multi-track in its challenges.
• Avoid the conflict trap economically and the “hate” & “scapegoating” trap socially.
• There need to be institutions which assist and support peace processes and which redress grievances.  Ultimately this involves a substantial dose of “the rule of law”.

• SURVIVE!!
• Provoke illegitimate, i.e. overly repressive, response by government – suffer!
• Gain legitimacy from outsiders and population via actions & by declining government support
• Show yourself as a viable alternative institution.
   

• Take and hold areas & provide services and security which government cannot provide.
• Promote conditions which show government that it cannot win.
• Have demands or a plan that looks increasingly plausible, if not desirable, to the population